A prominent Nigerian financial analyst, Kalu Aja, has predicted that Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the founder of the Dangote Group, may soon begin acquiring filling stations across Nigeria and other West African countries.
Aja made this statement on his X (formerly Twitter) handle on Thursday, suggesting that the billionaire’s next move, following the recent fuel distribution initiative of his massive 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery, could be to dominate the downstream oil retail market.
“Watch out: I predict Dangote starts buying filling stations in West Africa. What we’re witnessing is the latest salvo in the horse lobby’s fight against the new car industry,” Aja wrote.
Although the Dangote Refinery has not officially announced any plan to acquire filling stations, industry watchers believe the move would be a logical next step in expanding the refinery’s reach into retail distribut
The prediction comes in the wake of a major milestone achieved by the Dangote Refinery. On September 15, 2025, the refinery flagged off its nationwide fuel and diesel distribution scheme, a move that disrupted Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.
The refinery, located in Lagos, Nigeria, had earlier announced an investment of N720 billion in compressed natural gas (CNG) trucks to aid fuel and diesel distribution nationwide. With a capacity to refine 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, the refinery is not only the largest in Africa but also one of the biggest single-train refineries in the world.
This distribution scheme has been seen by analysts as a significant attempt to reduce reliance on middlemen and directly connect refined products with end-users across the country. However, the move has been met with resistance by major players in the Nigerian downstream oil sector who view the plan as disruptive and potentially threatening to their long-established supply chains.
According to industry experts, if Dangote indeed ventures into acquiring filling stations, it could dramatically reshape the fuel retail market in Nigeria and beyond. With direct control over production, distribution, and retail outlets, the Dangote Group could establish a fully integrated oil supply chain, potentially driving down prices and improving efficiency.
Analysts also suggest that such a move would position Dangote not only as a major supplier but also as a direct competitor to multinational and indigenous oil marketers who have long dominated the fuel retail business across West Africa.
For ordinary Nigerians and other West African consumers, this could mean better access to petroleum products and possibly reduced costs due to economies of scale. However, some industry operators fear it could lead to a monopoly that squeezes out smaller players.
While Dangote Refinery has not confirmed any plans to purchase filling stations, Kalu Aja’s prediction has sparked significant debate in financial and oil industry circles.
The billionaire’s refinery has already begun transforming the downstream oil sector with its large-scale investments and bold distribution strategy.
If Aja’s forecast becomes reality, Aliko Dangote could soon extend his influence from oil refining and distribution into retail marketing, potentially making his refinery not just a producer but also a dominant force in West Africa’s fuel retail business
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